Cincinnati’s National Title Odds Significantly Improve After Beating Notre Dame; Oregon Fades to +4500

Cincinnati's Malik Vann running with his team flag

Cincinnati’s Malik Vann (42) runs with the school’s flag after Cincinnati defeated Notre Dame, 24-13, in an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

  • The Cincinnati Bearcats saw major improvement in their National Title odds after beating Notre Dame in Week 5
  • Oregon faded to +4500 after suffering a shocking upset loss to Stanford
  • Read below to see how Week 5’s results impacted the National Championship odds

The CFP National Championship odds experienced major shakeup following Week 5 of the 2021 college football season. Cincinnati’s saw its National Title odds improve to +2500 after beating No. 9 Notre Dame, while Oregon’s odds plummeted after losing to unranked Stanford.

Below are the updated National Championship odds following Week 5 of the season.

National Championship Odds

Ohio State+1000
Penn State+2500
Michigan State+7500
Notre Dame+8000
Ole Miss+10000
Oklahoma State+10000
Arizona State+15000
Texas A&M+18000
North Carolina State+18000
North Carolina+20000
Wake Forest+20000
Virginia Tech+20000
Iowa State+20000

Odds as of Oct. 3rd, 2021.

Bearcats Are Eying CFP

Cincinnati has its eyes on the College Football Playoff after a big Week 5 win against Notre Dame. Luke Fickell and the Bearcats walked into South Bend and took down an undefeated Irish team by a 24-13 score. Cincinnati’s National Title odds improved from +5000 to +2500 as a result of the victory.

Cincinnati’s odds improvement was the biggest jump made by any contender following Week 5. The Bearcats are now 4-0 on the season with impressive wins over Indiana and Notre Dame on their resume. They’re looking to become the first Group of Five school in history to qualify for the four-team College Football Playoff.

Does Cincinnati have a realistic shot at making the CFP? Since the inception of the playoff in 2014, six Group of 5 teams have gone undefeated. None of those teams finished ranked higher than No. 8 by season’s end. The Bearcats are facing an uphill battle due to the lackluster schedule that comes with playing in the AAC.

This Cincinnati team is special, however, and might be the best shot the Group of 5 has at getting a team into the CFP. Quarterback Desmond Ridder is a frontrunner in the Heisman odds and Fickell is a top-tier coach. Not to mention, several Power 5 superpowers have struggled this season.

2021 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker

Ducks Fade After Upset Loss

Oregon has faded from +1500 to +4500 in the National Title odds after suffering a shocking upset loss to Stanford in Week 5. The Ducks entered the game as 7.5-point favorites and came away with a heartbreaking 31-24 overtime loss. Top running back CJ Verdell was carted off the field after getting injured in the third quarter.

Oregon’s loss to Stanford was devastating for their CFP chances. The Ducks had been looking like a strong bet to end a five-year CFP drought for the Pac-12. Oregon beat Ohio State on the road back in Week 2 despite being without star DE Kayvon Thibodeaux. That victory loses meaning with a loss to an unranked Cardinal team.

It’s unlikely a one-loss Pac-12 team makes the playoff, but Oregon will need to show out the rest of the way to improve their chances. This loss also impacts Ohio State, who saw their National Title odds improve from +1200 to +1000 after thumping Rutgers in Week 5. Ohio State’s resume isn’t going to look as strong if the Ducks lose to inferior opponents.

Other Week 5 Movement

Several Big 10 contenders saw notable movement after Week 5. Michigan improved from +5000 to +3000 after beating Wisconsin 38-17, while Iowa went from +4000 to +3500 after blowing out Maryland. Penn State also went from +3000 to +2500 after shutting out Indiana. All three teams remain undefeated heading into Week 6.

The Big Ten CFP picture is convoluted, but it says something that Michigan now has better National Championship odds than Iowa. The Wolverines have Ohio State on their schedule, which can’t be said for the Hawkeyes. Jim Harbaugh’s team will have a convincing case if they run the table and finally beat their Ohio State rivals.

Elsewhere, Ole Miss and Notre Dame both saw their odds significantly lengthen after Week 5. Matt Corral and the Rebels lost badly to Alabama, which pretty much crushes their CFP chances. With how dominant Alabama and Georgia have been, it’s unlikely we see a third SEC team sneak into the CFP.

Notre Dame has taken a nosedive as they simply haven’t been impressive despite a 4-1 record. Oklahoma (+1500) is another contender who has underwhelmed, but at least they’re undefeated. The Sooners have a strong enough reputation that as long as they win every game, they’ll get into the CFP.

Brady Trettenero

Sports Writer